Warner Pacific
College
May 22, 2014
Vulnerability
means the potential to be harmed. Vulnerability to natural hazards is thus the
potential to be harmed by natural hazards. Some people and places are more
vulnerable to certain hazards than other people and places. While any one
extreme event may be unusual, there are broad trends in natural hazards. These
trends are due to characteristics of both natural systems and human systems. By
characterizing these trends, we can understand who and what is vulnerable and
in what ways they are vulnerable. This in turn helps us reduce vulnerability
and, when extreme events occur, reduce the damage. This work saves lives, and
much more. Some disaster trends over time generally speaking, disasters are
becoming less deadly but more costly. Fewer people are dying in disasters, but
damages are costing more in dollars. Improved science and technology is a main
reason that fewer lives are lost. We are now better at forecasting disasters,
and our buildings and other structures can better withstand the physical
impacts. This increases our resilience to hazards. Growth in population and the
economy is a main reason that more money is lost. Simply put, society now has
more of value that is exposed to hazards. Even though much of this is also more
resistant to damage, the total dollar amount of damage has been increasing.
The risk of
specific natural hazards varies widely from region to region. For example,
floods tend to occur in low-lying areas near water. The Sahel region (the
southern edge of the Sahara desert in Africa) is periodically plagued by
droughts. Forest fires tend to occur (as you might guess) in forests.
Earthquakes and volcanoes tend to occur near boundaries of tectonic plates.
Many of the world’s earthquakes and volcanoes occur along the edge of the
Pacific ocean, along the boundaries of the Pacific Plate. This region is known
as the Ring of Fire for its intense volcanic activity. Within the United
States, some regions are more vulnerable to natural hazards than others. For
example, Pennsylvania has a relatively low vulnerability, whereas Florida has a
relatively high vulnerability. Pennsylvania gets a lot of hot weather in the summer,
cold weather in the winter, and rainfall throughout, but while this all can be
inconvenient or unpleasant, it is usually not dangerous. Florida, on the other
hand, doesn't have to bundle up so much in the winter, but it does face
frequent hurricanes. Some studies show that elderly people are more vulnerable
than younger people due to the fact that not only can they not move as fast as
younger people. Also there are some tests that state that men are also more
likely to survive longer than women in a natural disaster based on the soul
reason that they tend to be stronger and they are more prone to being handy
outdoors.
Currently Oregon is showing us it’s
vulnerability to the natural hazards of flooding, hurricane force winds and
landslides. It has been in the news every day for the last week. A mother and
child were killed when the car they were riding as passengers in was suddenly
swept away from a creek overflowing in a grocery store parking lot. Passes to
the coast have been closed due to landslides and damage to roads along with
flying debris from hurricane force winds. Houses have been flooded and others
have shifted off their foundations. Mount Bachelor Ski Resort closed last week
because of extreme snow fall making it hazardous if not impossible to reach the
resort with a concern for avalanches. In 1998 the Oregon Department of Geology
and Mineral Industries cited five categories of natural hazards that include
floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis (Earthquakes
and other natural hazards in the Pacific Northwest, 1999). They further state
that all five of these hazards have occurred in the last century. I remember
becoming stranded at my mother in laws while visiting her in Beaverton during
the flood of 1996/97.
I believe that was the same year as
the worst ice storm I remember. I had been in Fairview and had to slip and
slide my way home, it was quite frightening. We had another ice storm in 2003
and I had a new baby and lived on the second floor of an apartment building
with rickety stairs made out of wrought iron and stone. I didn’t feel safe
trying to carry my new baby down those stairs and chose to stay inside my
apartment. I was fortunate enough to have my adult step daughter bring me
supplies when needed. In April 2011, the Oregon House of Representatives
unanimously passed House Resolution 3 (sponsored by Rep. Deborah Boone,
D-Cannon Beach), which directs Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission
(OSSPAC) to “lead and coordinate preparation of an Oregon Resilience Plan that
. . . makes recommendations on policy direction to protect lives and keep
commerce flowing during and after a Cascadia (mega thrust) earthquake and
tsunami.” The Plan and recommendations were delivered to the Oregon Legislative
Assembly February 28, 2013.
The Oregon Natural Hazards
Mitigation Plan (NHMP) identifies and prioritizes potential actions throughout
Oregon that would reduce our vulnerability to natural hazards. In addition, the
plan satisfies the requirements of the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA) to ensure that Oregon is eligible to receive hazard mitigation and
disaster assistance funds from the federal government. The current version of
plan was approved on March 5, 2012, and this update will be adopted in early 2015.
The State Interagency Hazard Mitigation Team (State IHMT) provides project
oversight and policy direction. The Oregon Military Department, Office of
Emergency Management facilitates and supports the IHMT, and manages federal
mitigation planning and disaster assistance funds. The Department of Land
Conservation and Development manages the project. A vulnerability analysis is a
methodology which documents the extent of exposure that may result from a
hazard event of a given intensity in a given area. The analysis provides
quantitative data that may be used to identify and prioritize potential
mitigation measures by allowing communities to focus attention on areas with
the greatest risk of damage.
A vulnerability analysis is divided
into five steps: asset inventory, methodology, date limitations, exposure
analysis for current assets and areas of future development. Emergency
Management Performance Grant funding requires local hazard vulnerability
analyses be current and updated within the past ten years. The State of Oregon
requires the update every five. The City of Portland’s Hazard Vulnerability
Analysis was updated in 2006 and will be updated in 2011. The Citywide Asset
Report outlines criteria for replacement and maintenance of city-owned
infrastructure and buildings. The 2008 report specifically identified risk
analysis from unforeseeable occurrences as a factor to be considered in the
study. Risk consequences and likelihood of failure were outlined as process
elements that each bureau should incorporate into their asset management plan.
The 2008 report concluded that most bureaus have limited capacity to predict
likely failure modes for assets and have not estimated the likelihood and
consequence of asset failure. City facilities were estimated at $23.1 billion
in replacement value (Appendix H Reference: Portland 2009i). City assets
include parks, structures and infrastructure.
A conservative exposure-level analysis was
conducted to assess the risks of identified hazards. This analysis is a
simplified assessment of the potential effects of the hazards on properties at
risk without consideration of probability or level of damage. I am really happy
that Oregon has this plan because it will come in handy when global warming
takes its toll. The earth is changing and with it comes great responsibility
and this puts us in great danger as well. I will do my part to make sure I have
a contingency plan will you?
References
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